Evaluating Catcher Throwing Ability

Our last post was on an evaluation of outfielder throwing ability, where success/failure on individual throwing events were tabulated for each outfielder in terms of runs saved/cost. We now apply the same methodology to catchers: the Run Expectancy Matrix provides us with expected runs for each game situation, which we can use to calculate a runs saved/cost value for a particular successful or unsuccessful play. For catchers, this is the ability to throw out base stealers as well as keeping players from trying to steal. We tabulate the runs saved/cost for every catcher in each of four seasons of ball-in-play data (2002-2005) and then average across all four seasons (taking into account differences in opportunities between seasons).

The table below gives the five best and five worst catchers, in terms of average runs saved/cost in throwing events.

Ten Best Catcher Arms

Name	Runs Saved
1 . Schneider Brian	6.554
2 . Molina Yadier	4.406
3 . Hall Toby	4.258
4 . Ardoin Danny	3.669
5 . Miller Damian	2.998
6 . Molina Bengie	2.835
7 . Blanco Henry	2.377
8 . Rodriguez Ivan	2.372
9 . LaRue Jason	1.816
10 . Wilson Vance	1.772

Ten Worst Catcher Arms

Name	Runs Cost
1 . Piazza Mike	-4.975
2 . Varitek Jason	-3.199
3 . Martinez Victor	-3.001
4 . Zaun Gregg	-2.78
5 . Fordyce Brook	-2.679
6 . Fasano Sal	-2.61
7 . Lieberthal Mike	-2.505
8 . Bennett Gary	-2.231
9 . Wilson Tom	-2.111
10 . Hundley Todd	-1.87

The full results for catchers can be downloaded here.
The use of the expected run matrix to evaluate the run consequence of stolen bases leads to an interesting consequence: in terms of expected runs, it is more valuable to throw out a baserunner attempting to steal than preventing a baserunner from attempting to steal. Catchers that have a reputation for throwing out baserunners will not have a great run contribution because baserunners will attempt to steal less often. An example is Ivan Rodriguez who is considered to be the best catcher in the game. However, Rodriguez is ranked as only the eighth best catcher by our analysis, in part because he has one of the lowest proportion of steal attempts against him (3.5% of baserunning opportunities) among regular catchers. Clearly, the optimal situation for a catcher is to have a high success rate on throwing out baserunners but without the reputation for doing so, so that baserunners still attempt to steal at a substantial rate. An extreme (and not recommended) implementation of this strategy would suggest that catchers could deliberately fail on a throwing attempt in an relatively unimportant game situation in the hopes that baserunners would then be more likely to attempt (and be thrown out) in a more important situation.

Evaluating Outfielder Throwing Ability

All of our previous SAFE fielding evaluations have only focussed on the ability to make outs on balls in play. However, another dimension of fielding is the evaluating performance of throwing events by individual players. We have just finished an analysis that quantifies the relative throwing ability of each individual outfielders by tracking all throwing opportunities in the 2002-2005 seasons and evaluating the relative success of each fielder relative to the league average on the scale of runs saved/cost.

The Run Expectancy Matrix provides us with expected runs for each game situation, which we can use to calculate a runs saved/cost value for a particular successful or unsuccessful play. For outfielders, we want to measure ability to throw out baserunners trying to take extra bases, as well as keeping baserunners from trying to take extra bases. We tabulate the runs saved/cost for every outfielder in each of four seasons of ball-in-play data (2002-2005) and then average across all four seasons (taking into account differences in opportunities between seasons).

The table below gives the ten best and ten worst outfielder arms, in terms of average runs saved/cost in throwing events.

Ten Best Outfielder Arms

Name	Runs Saved
1 . Edmonds Jim	8.718
2 . Jones Jacque	8.659
3 . Taveras Willy	8.074
4 . Johnson Kelly	7.772
5 . Sullivan Cory	7.372
6 . Chavez Endy	6.524
7 . Guerrero Vladimir	6.197
8 . Hidalgo Richard	6.181
9 . Hunter Torii	5.974
10 . Walker Larry	5.852

Ten Worst Outfielder Arms

Name	Runs Cost
1 . Brown Emil	-16.783
2 . Pierre Juan	-10.769
3 . Lawton Matt	-9.428
4 . Sanchez Alex	-7.793
5 . Holliday Matthew	-7.341
6 . Crawford Carl	-7.111
7 . DeJesus David	-6.996
8 . Williams Bernie	-6.785
9 . White Rondell	-6.559
10 . Magee Wendell	-5.973

The full results for outfielders can be downloaded here. I'll post another entry soon that applies the same methodology to the throwing ability of catchers in base-stealing opportunities.