Right Idea.... Wrong Reason
Darren Everson reports in the WSJ of a growing trend among managers to try new things. One idea is to not bat the pitcher last in the lineup. I am not sure this really makes sense since the negatives probably outweigh the positives. A second idea is to have the "Starting" pitcher begin in the second inning. I have long argued that this is a really good idea, but not at all for the reason cited by Doug Melvin (Brewer's GM):
The thinking is that starters are typically among a team's best
pitchers, yet nowadays they often pitch only through the fifth or sixth inning, well before many games are decided. By having them pitch later, they'd be around for the higher-leverage innings.
Right Idea. Wrong Reason. The concept of leverage is important only for the purposes of resource management. The star closer is a scarce resource useful only for one inning at a time. So you would not want to waste it in a low-leverage situation. Ergo, you save the closer. What is forgotten in this calculus is that you inevitably fail to use the closer in many games where his use in an early inning could have changed the game most.
Now consider the first inning. Because team's lead with their best hitters the most runs are scored in the first innings. Since all runs count the same (regardless of the inning in which they are scored) the first innings has the highest expected leverage. This means that if you could go back and erase a single inning and replace it the inning most likely to make the most difference is the first inning. Ultimately what this means is that you want to use a star reliever at the start of the game to face the most feared hitters. Then your starter should take over in inning two. A second star reliever (if you have it) should be used for high-leverage situation towards the end.
posted by Adi @ 12:41 PM
4 comments
4 Comments:
There's some merit to using the ace reliever in the first inning. If I recall correctly, on average, more runs are scored in the first inning than any other inning.
The first inning is almost exactly average, leverage-speaking. Yes, the best of the lineup is at the plate, but I doubt a decrease in expected runs in the first is more valuable than the high-leverage situations late in games. We're talking situations that are 1.5 to 3 times more important than the average plate appearance. It's like having your best pitcher throw three innings for the price of one. 70 innings of an ace reliever used optimally is equivalent to about 150 starter innings. And the ace reliever will have a much better ERA. (Although, the replacement level ERA of a reliever is much better than that of a starter.)
Also, while starters are generally better pitchers than relievers, they don't necessarily prevent more runs. Relievers have better ERAs because they can throw harder, feature fewer pitches, and don't have to face batters multiple times. It's often correct to bring in a "worse pitcher" late in games, because he'll perform better than the starter.
Tom- you probably don't want to use your ace in the first, since the game MAY have a high leverage situation in the ninth (SKY's point is spot on). There is about .1 more runs scored in the first than in any other inning. Under only modest assumptions, a one inning "starter" could save about 16 runs a season or about 3-4 extra wins.
Tango/Lichtman/Dolphin/'s The Book has a chapter about alternative pitching rotations. Their idea is that whenever someone other than your number 1 thru 3 starters is pitching, that you never let your pitcher bat. By doing so you add .42 runs per game in all of these games. You start your 4th/5th starter, pinch hit for him and relieve him with your 5th/4th starter, pinch hit for him then you should be in the 6th or 7th inning and use the rest of your bullpen as normal. Rotation would be setup like.
Day 1: #1 Starter
Day 2: #2 Starter
Day 3: #4, #5, 3rd best reliever
Day 4: #3 Starter
Day 5: #5, #4, 3rd best reliever
The typical great hitter or great pitcher is worth .42 runs per game, which is about what this format would save you. You do lose a little flexibility as you use up 2 pinch hitters early but the .42 additional runs, which is 68 runs per season, or over 6.5 additional wins is huge.v
vr, Xei
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